Fuzzy Study on the Winning Rate of Football Game Betting
Keywords:winning rate prediction, ELO rating, fuzzy number, fuzzy partition, regression model
This study aims to find variables that affect the winning rate of the football team before a match. Qualitative variables such as venue, match importance, performance, and atmosphere of both teams are suggested to predict the outcome. Regression analysis is used to select proper variables. In this study, the performance of the football team is based on the opinions of experts, and the team atmosphere can be calculated with the results of the previous five games. ELO rating represents the state of the opponent. Also, the selected qualitative variables are expressed in fuzzy numbers using fuzzy partitions. A fuzzy regression model for the winning rate of the football team can be estimated by using the least squares method and the least absolute method. It is concluded that the stadium environment, ELO rating, team performance, and importance of the match have effects on the winning rate of Korean National Football (KNF) team from the data on 118 matches.
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